Source Level Triage

Posted on Tuesday, 22 August 2017 9:08 am by markpilip

Screen Shot 2017-08-22 at 8.34.48 AMLet’s assume you’ve built your marketing whiffletree and have a banding model at the source level that you can analyze every Monday.

Of course, you’ll sort your sources from most effective to least and do more of the things that work while cutting the dogs.

Correctly, we find ourselves spending a lot of time at the banding cutoff, i.e. looking at sources just above or below our allowable. That’s where you can scale your efforts and optimize marketing ROI.

I also suggest you think about your media sources using the triage method to help focus your efforts. Like classical triage theory, your sources belong in one of three “tents” where the source:

  1. Will never get any better. The performance you have is what you have. You probably can’t scale it much and changing creative and offer will be of limited efficacy. If it’s above the cutoff, great. If it’s below, cut it and move on.
  2. Will be hard for you to screw up. These sources basically print money and will work almost regardless of what creative you throw at them, how much you run, etc. (There are usually not many in this bucket, of course.) Your most junior employees can learn the ropes on these sources. Take advantage of the source’s resilience and use it to train your next generation of talent.
  3. Could go either way. Meaning if the creative, volume, or mix with other channels is right, they work (or could be improved to be made to work). If wrong, the source performs at a rate below your allowable. This is where you earn your pay.

And the source could be in any of the tents, regardless of the sortation on the banding model.

Spend most of your time in tent three. Look at the things that need your limited resources, whether they be from your channel managers, your agency, or your analytical team. Those sources could live or die, but they need your attention. And don’t have triage done by interns. It should be done by the marketing experts with the most experience.

Messy work? Sure. But if you’re going to figure out what’s going to survive, you’ve got to get into the blood and guts of your media performance, and make some hard decisions.

Takeaway: During source analysis, focus on the sources with variable outcomes which are dependent on your intervention. Spend your time in “tent three.” And win.

 

Posted in Marketing, Media, Philosophy, Tactics | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Who’s Going to Debug Digital Advertising?

Posted on Wednesday, 16 August 2017 11:33 am by markpilip

In Alan Kay’s talk “How To Invent The Future II” he quotes Tony Hoare:

“Debugging is  harder than programming, so don’t use all your cleverness to write the program.”

The entire digital ecosystem, so incredibly complicated that nobody can tell why a particular ad was served to a particular identity (or even if the identity is a human), was programmed by thousands of companies in pursuit of quick profit.

Now that we know it’s a mess, who’s gonna fix it? Not more tech, that’s for sure. And there’s no money in the slog of debugging.

Takeaway: Don’t rely on buggy technology. Think like a marketer. Segment and prioritize before you go in search of “reach” or “audiences.” And win.

Posted in Data, digital marketing, Marketing, Media | Tagged , , , , , | Comments Off on Who’s Going to Debug Digital Advertising?

Live by the Algorithm, Die by Same

Posted on Tuesday, 15 August 2017 9:09 am by markpilip

Think your fancy, all-seeing algorithm can’t be gamed?

So do the fools at Uber. Unfortunately, it looks like Uber drivers can just switch off the app at once and trigger surge pricing. No complicated competing algorithm, no data scientists needed.

Complex systems can be–when created by people–relatively fragile. And the bigger the complex system, the more likely it can be disrupted by small and perhaps unexpected things. Case in point, Uber and taxi drivers with cell phones.

Do you really think your fancy multi-touch attribution models can beat armies of profit-motivated criminals with (among other things) IOT botnets?

Takeaway: Start with proper marketing, then add technology to support your strategy. Check everything. De-complicate*. And win.

*Changed from “de-complexify” on 9/20/17. I’ve noticed several cases when I referenced complexity instead of complication and have tried to make those corrections as I find them.

Posted in digital marketing, fraud, Marketing, Philosophy | Tagged , , | Comments Off on Live by the Algorithm, Die by Same

TIKI: You Could Have Been Firmer

Posted on Monday, 14 August 2017 10:08 am by markpilip

Screen Shot 2017-08-14 at 9.54.58 AMImagine your brand being co-opted by an odd mix of right-wing frat boys with funny haircuts, toothless old men with grey beards and beer guts, and sniveling shifty-eyed wanna-be soldiers. In other words, the Master Race, same as they ever were.

Yep, that’s what happened to Tiki over the weekend in Charlottesville. Here’s their response:

“TIKI Brand is not associated in any way with the events that took place in Charlottesville and are deeply saddened and disappointed. We do not support their message or the use of our products in this way. Our products are designed to enhance backyard gatherings and to help family and friends connect with each other at home in their yard.”

Now I imagine their lawyers made them write this. And to their credit, they at least said something firmer than the spineless racist-in-chief, Donald J. Trump.

But why not show some real backbone here? How about this:

“TIKI Brand condemns the racist white supremacy and white nationalist movements and all those who support them. Your beliefs, words, and actions are against all we value as a company. We do not want you to purchase our products. We do not want your business. We do not want your money. If you are a member of these groups, go elsewhere.

The TIKI Brand company has calculated that our profit from this disgusting display of hate was roughly $X. We are donating twice that amount to the ADL [or other worthy anti-hate group(s)].”

So a few spineless Nazi wanna-bes won’t buy your stuff. I guarantee they’d sell backyards full of stuff this weekend to real human beings.

What are you going to do when these punks start using your brand? Be ready now and be firm. Don’t be like IBM, Bayer, VW, or Krupp. Tell them to go away when they show up.

Takeaway: You can’t please everybody. But you can stand up for what’s correct. Stand up to hate and be unequivocal about it. And win.

Resist.

Posted in Communications, Diversity, Leadership | Tagged , , , | Comments Off on TIKI: You Could Have Been Firmer

How Many Tracking Pixels to Screw in a Light Bulb?

Posted on Friday, 4 August 2017 11:59 am by markpilip

Screen Shot 2017-08-04 at 9.49.14 AMI turned on WordPress’s WordAds on this blog a couple of days ago. It takes a couple of days for the ad tech ecosystem to smell the fresh blood, but as of this morning, there are 66 tracking pixels firing every time the blog is called up.

My lousy little blog gets about 30-60 visitors per week and it takes 1-2 tracking pixels per visitor to serve the poorly-targeted ads you are seeing right now. Assuming you’re not using an ad blocker, of course.

Can you see what’s wrong with the ad tech ecosystem?

Posted in Analysis, digital marketing, Marketing, Media, Privacy | Tagged , , , , , , | Comments Off on How Many Tracking Pixels to Screw in a Light Bulb?

Data’s FUBAR? Your Process is TARFU!

Posted on Friday, 4 August 2017 9:28 am by markpilip

Screen Shot 2017-08-01 at 3.27.24 PMI’ve taken to ignoring most of the text in trade industry publications until I’ve looked at the numbers. Often, the math doesn’t match the narrative or tells another story completely.

Case in point: a couple of days ago, this article about an identity management platform showed up in AdExchanger with a brief case study about how the platform helped clean up a restaurant chain’s data. From the article:

After going through [vendor’s] pre-onboarding vetting process, one client, a casual dining restaurant popular with an older demographic, found that 13% of its file [emphasis mine] – between 13 million and 14 million records – were no longer alive.

The 13% had me fire up the calculator. That means the restaurant chain had 100-108MM records in their database. There are 51.3MM Americans aged 65+, which means “older” to me. Assuming the restaurant chain’s marketers are the typical Millennial-obsessed frauds populating many marketing departments, “older” might mean the 135.2MM 45+ US adults.

In the former case you’ve got maybe 2 records per “older” U.S. adult and in the latter it implies you’ve got 80% of all “older” adults on file. Nobody has 80% penetration, particularly in a business where lots of people still pay with cash and offer no PII in exchange for lunch.

Stop right there, do not pass go, do not collect $200. There is no way either of those numbers are right. You don’t need a vendor to tell you that about your file, if you’re competent. And it gets worse when we look at the deceased rate.

The mortality rate for 55-64 year olds is .878% (NIH stats, 2007), 2.01% for 65-77 year olds, 5.01% for 75-84 year olds and 13% for 85+.

In a good file, per industry standards, perhaps .5% to 1.0% of your records will be deceased. It’s a little lower for younger customers in a well maintained file and a little higher for older customers in an inadequately managed file.

Assuming the business is growing at the rate of GDP and adding records at roughly that rate, they’re probably losing ~0.8%-ish of their customers annually to the Grim Reaper.

A 13% deceased rate is FUBAR. And all the identity in the world isn’t going to fix it. They’ve got a gigantic process problem there. Either:

  • They’ve got a database as old as the hills, or;
  • They’re pouring in lots of duplicate records of dead people, or;
  • Their logic to check records on input is lousy or non-existent, or;
  • They never, ever purge a record or; (most likely)
  • They don’t really have a customer database

The real story here isn’t identity matching. The real story here is the process is TARFU, maybe even FUBAR.

Takeaway: Before you spend money on cleaning up your data, check your process for the the collection, cleansing, appending and disposal (yes, disposal) of old or inaccurate data. And win.

Posted in Data, Marketing, Strategy | Tagged , , , , , | Comments Off on Data’s FUBAR? Your Process is TARFU!

Handling Marketing “Helmet Fire”

Posted on Tuesday, 1 August 2017 11:59 am by markpilip

Screen Shot 2017-08-01 at 9.46.59 AMHelmet fire, also known as task saturation, is a silent killer among pilots. As more things happen at once, you start to fail. You might get fixated on one thing–like the 20 cent light that killed 101 aboard Eastern Air flight 401. Or you might shut down entirely.

The problem is that you don’t even feel the true extent of the problem.

Task saturation happens everywhere, even in marketing. Ever forget to do something you promised somebody else, while in the middle of a days-long fire drill? That could be task saturation at work.

One of the solutions is to focus on what’s important, depending on where you are. At 30,000 feet, a pilot can do lots of things. At 5,000 feet while doing 600 mph, you focus on one thing: flying the plane.

What’s the equivalent of “flying the plane” for marketers? It’s making sure the ads are seen by the right target audience. If you don’t show ads to people, you’ll crash and burn.

Posted in digital marketing, Marketing, Tactics | Tagged , , | Comments Off on Handling Marketing “Helmet Fire”

I’m testing something now and have temporarily turned on WordPress’s WordAds. I’ll turn them off in a day or two.

Posted on Tuesday, 1 August 2017 8:11 am by markpilip | Comments Off on Ads Temporarily On

Videri Quam Esse: P&G and Digital Advertising

Posted on Monday, 31 July 2017 10:11 am by markpilip

P&G cut between $100 and $140 million in digital advertising last quarter and sales went up. I don’t mean they were flat or that margins went up through a short-sided strategy of cutting marketing investment.

This wasn’t just advertising that sort of didn’t work or was marginally less effective. It didn’t work, period. This money was being stolen from them by the players in the digital marketing ecosystem. Yes, stolen. That’s by the duopoly (Facebook and Google) and their sycophants in the digital marketing ecosystem: ad tech, mar tech, and all the other “tech” leeches in the slimy, fraud-filled world of digital advertising.

Screen Shot 2017-07-31 at 10.05.07 AM

The Mar Tech and Ad Tech Swamp. Over 5,000 Ways to Waste Your Money

If P&G–probably the smartest marketing company there is–can get $100 million or more stolen from them in a quarter what’s the chances you’re not getting ripped off in your digital advertising? Zero.

How to avoid being ripped off? Stop with the nonsense about buying “audiences.” That’s clue #1 that you’re probably getting taken to the cleaners. Instead, practice proper marketing, beginning with strategy:

  • Hire trained marketers, not dilettantes
  • Segment your audience
  • Define your target segments
  • Understand the purchase funnel
  • Develop marketing strategies to address each segment
  • Develop tactical plans to move the prospect through the purchase funnel
  • Carefully measure each step of the way
  • Make improvements to each “hole in the bucket”
  • Audit each and every media buy, in detail

I’ll bet P&G can cut another $100 million a quarter from their current digital buys and still not see a reduction in sales. And I bet they will.

Takeaway: Do you have the resources and buying power that P&G does? If not, you’re getting robbed by the digital ecosystem and the duopoly. Go back to strategy. Audit everything. Be skeptical. Cut ruthlessly. And win.

Posted in digital marketing, fraud, Marketing, Media, Strategy, Tactics | Tagged , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Videri Quam Esse: P&G and Digital Advertising

Says the great Drayton Bird in his email this morning:

“On-line marketing is just accelerated direct marketing.”

He’s right. It’s therefore more important than ever that your marketers are properly trained: it’s harder to keep the rubber on the road in an F1 car than in your daily driver. Yet, the marketing world has been hijacked by charlatans, who speed around the track recklessly, crashing our valuable brands into the Armco.

When discussing the seven ways to make marketing great again, Mark Ritson said:

“Don’t listen to the f****ing philistines or we all will lose. The anti-intellectual movement cannot win here.”

Watch Ritson in action here, as well as the appalling advice given by a famous marketing charlatan.

Takeaway: Practice proper marketing. Get trained. Understand the entire discipline. And win.

Posted on Thursday, 27 July 2017 11:14 am by markpilip | Comments Off on “Digital” is Just Accelerated Direct Marketing